Monday, December 7, 2015

Pick n' Pay long and Telkom short setups

With the 21 week EMA well above the 89 week EMA, despite the bearish candle painted last week, the longer-term trend on PIK still looks fairly stable setting a series of higher lows over the past 6 months . The stochastic does have a slightly bearish bias but its in a fairly neutral zone at the moment. 



Drilling down into the daily chart, we see that price has retraced  from the last localised high achieved in the last week of November and then found support at the 100% retracement level resulting in a hint of positive divergence as price made a lower low while the stochastic made a slightly higher low.  The stochastic is also oversold and looks to be reversing upwards towards its signal line.



On the support and resistance daily graph we see that price appears to be finding support at an upward sloping trend-line going back to June 2015 



As indicated in the graph above, I'm going to trade this by looking to buy into further strength at an entry around R64.20 (above today's high) looking for a move back to overhead resistance at R68.50 with a stop set as a close below R62.70 (previous swing low) yielding a target reward-risk of 2.9-1. In the context of overall market weakness and the slightly bearish bias developing on the weekly chart I'd grade this trade at 75% of maximum risk. 

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TKG is a standard 3LB short setup with the 3LB breaking down below its previous swing low creating a sell zone between R57.90 and R59.70 with a stop as a close above R61.50 and downside targets at R54.30/R50.70 and R48.90




4 comments:

  1. After yesterday's sell-off on PIK the support level was comprehensively broken with a close below stop so I've cut the losses at R60.61 which is a bit below the originally envisaged stop resulting in a 2.4-1 loss on the 5.6% price move

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  2. Closed out TKG after 3LB painted green but only managed a R63.24 exit so loss was 1.7 -1 on a 7.6% price movement

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