Sunday, November 15, 2015

Hyprop long setup - another property trade attempt

With the increasing probability of a US interest rate hike on the cards for later this year, locally listed property stocks have experienced a substantial pullback over the past 3 weeks. I tried an unsuccessful 3LB long trade on Redefine (RDF) around the start of that pullback but now the stock that has caught my eye is Hyprop (HYP) which has also retraced along with the rest of the sector.

Starting with the longer-term weekly chart of HYP, we can see the 21 EMA well above the 89 EMA highlighting the major uptrend this stock remains in. The weekly stochastic has crossed below its signal line and is pointing downwards to be sure so the potential for further downside remains - however the stochastic itself is positioned in a fairly neutral zone.



The daily chart makes for more interesting viewing as here we can see the stochastic reflecting the reversal noted above but now starting to move back up from oversold conditions, crossing its signal line upwards on Friday. The daily candle also looks relatively bullish painting a semi-long tail and ending well off its lows for the day. 



Finally the daily support and resistance view shows the stock hitting a relatively strong support level going back to the start of the year.


Some mixed signals particularly on the longer-term time frame so we'll look to trade this stock using 75% of normal risk size. Our setup will be to enter below R121.00 or better (around the current price)with a stop as a close below R118.00 (under the support level) and we'll look for a move back to around the R127.50 zone. This conservatively yields a reward-risk of 2.2-1 which could be improved by getting in at a better level and perhaps looking to exit closer to the R130.00 level. That latter element will be evaluated once the trade is entered but in the context of the overall market and taking quicker profits on the long side, its not an essential element of the setup.

2 comments:

  1. Plenty of entry opportunities today. I managed a weighted average entry price of R120.20

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  2. Closed out at R116.80 today as it looks like the bottom of the channel is being broken.

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